AGP Executive Report

LNG Watch: Eni is weighing a third floating LNG platform in Mozambique, after locking in its second FLNG Coral North (targeting 2028) to lift output to 7m tonnes/yr—Rovuma basin gas is again back in the spotlight as majors eye new development. Water Security: President Daniel Chapo launched Mozambique’s 2026–2036 National Water Security Compact, framing water as sovereignty and climate resilience, with plans to mobilise about $4.59bn to raise supply coverage to 75% and sanitation to 60%. Gas Revenues: Mozambique expects about $76.8m in LNG exploration revenues this year, with part earmarked for the Sovereign Wealth Fund and the rest for the state budget. Disaster Support: BGF and SDA donated $500k to Manica province, including boreholes, food hampers, school support and medical outreach. Skills for Industry: JA Africa and the ExxonMobil Foundation rolled out STEM Africa 2.0 across Angola, Mozambique, Namibia and Nigeria, adding AI-focused learning for 14–17 year-olds. Transport & Connectivity: Qatar Airways expands African routes and frequencies, including more flights to Maputo from June and a new Port Sudan service from July.

Agriculture Push: Mozambique President Daniel Chapo launched the 2026 Agricultural Marketing Campaign and set a “buyer of last resort” direction for the BMM and ICM, aiming to protect smallholders with legal reforms and more organised markets. Water Security: He also unveiled a 10-year National Water Security Compact (2026–2036) to lift water supply coverage to 75% and sanitation to 60%, backed by about $4.59bn for dams, reservoirs, monitoring and upgrades to schools and health centres. Regional Connectivity & Trade: Qatar Airways is stepping up Africa capacity—adding Maputo–Durban frequency and launching a new Port Sudan route—while ZIMRE Holdings reported a 28% jump in insurance contract revenue as it expands across priority markets including Mozambique. Security & EU Presence: The EU’s EUMAM Mozambique mission has been extended through year-end to keep building FADM quick-reaction capacity in Cabo Delgado. Disaster Relief: Tagwirei’s foundation pledged $500k in Manica for boreholes, food hampers and school support after natural disasters.

Water Security Push: Mozambique President Daniel Chapo launched a 10-year National Water Security Compact (2026–2036), aiming to lift water supply coverage to 75% and sanitation to 60%, with about $4.59bn to fund dams, reservoirs, monitoring stations, and upgrades to schools and health centres. Agribusiness Output: Chapo also said Mozambique expects to market about 14.6m tons of agricultural products in the 2026 campaign—up 26%—with maize, cassava, beans, rice, vegetables, sesame and cashew nuts leading. EU Security Continuity: The EU’s EUMAM Mozambique mission will stay for another six months to keep building capacity in Cabo Delgado-focused quick reaction forces. Regional Energy Debate: South Africa’s gas users are urging a more state-led approach to avoid a “gas cliff” after Mozambique’s Pande-Temane supply declines post-2028, while policy makers push for infrastructure and demand planning. Finance & Inclusion: Mastercard and Letshego moved to strengthen debit-card access in Mozambique, as operators chase broader digital payments growth.

Cross-border crime: South Africa’s North West meth bust—linked by police to Mexican networks—has landed 11 suspects in Swartruggens court, with charges spanning drug manufacturing, hazardous materials, precious metals and immigration violations; authorities say 481kg of methamphetamine has been seized so far, and the case was postponed for interpreters and immigration checks, underscoring how organised crime is getting more international. Mozambique governance: In Maputo, Prime Minister Benvinda Levi has pushed new state-company chairs to tighten transparency, controls and reforms at IGEPE, ENH and the Housing Development Fund, aiming to cut fiscal risk and improve public business performance. Industrialisation push: President Daniel Chapo used a cashew value-chain book launch to argue Mozambique must move beyond exporting raw nuts toward transformation, jobs and women’s inclusion. Regional spotlight: Mozambique is also in the mix of wider Africa policy talk, with parliamentarians meeting in Nairobi to coordinate a united stance on climate and methane negotiations. Urban development diplomacy: Azerbaijan’s WUF13 in Baku is drawing global media attention, with multiple delegations using the forum to showcase housing and sustainable city plans.

Industrial Policy Push: Mozambique President Daniel Chapo used a cashew-focused book launch to argue that real development means transforming raw output into industry, jobs, innovation and inclusion—especially for women—calling industrialization the route to economic independence. Regional Diplomacy & Trade: India is set to host the 4th India-Africa Forum Summit in New Delhi (28–31 May), aiming to turn political and economic ties into concrete cooperation through a “New Delhi Declaration.” Cross-Border Security: In South Africa’s North West, 11 suspects (including five Mexicans, two Mozambicans and others) appeared in court after a suspected R1bn meth lab bust, with authorities stressing action against production networks and foreign-linked operations. Climate Negotiation Unity: African parliamentarians meeting in Nairobi backed stronger coordination so Africa speaks “with one voice” on global climate and methane talks. Mozambique Governance: Mozambique’s PM urged state-owned company leaders to tighten transparency and controls to protect fiscal sustainability and improve public outcomes.

Mozambique Economy Watch: Mozambique is “not in total crisis” but is clearly faltering, with an IMF assessment flagging unsustainably high public debt, a weak external balance, and limited policy room—then global fuel-price shocks piled on, squeezing an already import-dependent economy and worsening poverty, services, and youth job prospects. State-Owned Reform Push: In Maputo, Prime Minister Benvinda Levi urged new leaders of state holdings and key public entities to tighten transparency, accountability, and controls—aiming to cut fiscal risk, improve viability, and generate more resources for the treasury. Digital Payments Momentum: Mastercard and Letshego are expanding digital inclusion in Mozambique with a new debit card using Mastercard’s network, targeting more formal, locally and internationally usable payments as cash still dominates. Regional Connectivity: Mozambique’s wider trade and logistics environment gets a boost as regional road works are set to start under World Bank funding (context for the corridor economy). What’s Missing: This week’s Mozambique-specific headlines were thinner than usual, with most breaking news focused on South Africa and regional policy rather than Mozambique projects.

Mozambique State Watch: Mozambique’s Prime Minister Benvinda Levi has pushed new state-company chairs to tighten transparency, curb fiscal risk and protect investment viability—aiming to make public holdings more profitable and less indebted. Regional Climate Push: In Nairobi, African parliamentarians backed a stronger, unified legislative voice on climate and methane talks, arguing financing and targets must match Africa’s development and food-security realities. Drug Enforcement Spillover: South Africa’s North West meth lab case—linked to foreign suspects including Mozambicans—keeps unfolding in court after a R1bn-plus haul of meth, chemicals and firearms. Energy & Trade Pressure: A new report again flags how oil and gas across Africa have failed to deliver broad development, leaving countries exposed to price shocks and import dependence. Digital Payments Momentum (Mozambique): Mastercard and Letshego are rolling out a Mozambique debit card to expand secure local and cross-border spending as cash still dominates. Industry Context: Vodacom is also leaning into smartphone financing to drive data growth and wider digital access.

Smartphone Push: Vodacom is betting on device financing to move prepaid users onto smartphones, using “pay a little, unlock later” repayment plans to boost data growth. Cement Competition: PPC is warning of “dumping risk” after South Africa’s Competition Commission approved a Chinese-backed move to buy AfriSam, with PPC alleging production could shift to Mozambique and flood local markets. Tech Listings: Avantis Technologies says its locally built laptop is paving the way for listings on VFEX (aiming for October) and a potential secondary listing in Tel Aviv. State Oversight: Mozambique’s PM Benvinda Levi has sworn in new leaders at IGEPE, ENH and the Housing Development Fund, demanding transparency, tighter controls and fewer fiscal risks in state-company reforms. Energy & Trade Shock: A week of coverage keeps circling the same pressure point: the Iran-linked shipping and fuel squeeze is hitting Africa’s most vulnerable farmers and import-dependent economies. Maritime Security: India’s IOS Sagar docked in Sri Lanka with a multinational crew including Mozambique, underscoring continued focus on Indian Ocean stability.

State Oversight Push: Mozambique’s Prime Minister Benvinda Levi has sworn in new leaders at IGEPE, ENH and the Housing Development Fund, urging transparency, accountability and tighter controls to cut fiscal risk and prevent state-company indebtedness—while demanding reforms that generate more resources for the public treasury. Cabo Delgado Security: The EU has extended EUMAM MOZ for six more months, keeping support for Mozambican forces against Islamist terrorism in the north. Energy & Investment Signals: Bank of Mozambique data shows FDI inflows up 60.2% to $5.6bn in 2025, driven mainly by major hydrocarbon projects in the Rovuma Basin. Food Security Angle: The economy ministry says Mozambique must scale up food fortification to tackle micronutrient deficiencies. Regional Shock Context: Coverage this week also flags how the Iran-linked disruption to global fuel and fertilizer flows is worsening shortages and pressure across Africa.

Drug Enforcement: Eleven suspects linked to a massive methamphetamine manufacturing operation are set to appear in Swartruggens court after a North West farm raid that police say uncovered equipment and chemicals worth about R100m, with hundreds of kilograms of methamphetamine seized. Maritime Security & Trade Costs: DP World says it remains “bullish” on Africa expansion from Mozambique to Congo, but warns Iran-war fuel shocks could feed inflation and hit consumers. Mozambique LNG & Policy: The EU has extended EUMAM MOZ for six more months to keep building Mozambican forces’ capacity against Cabo Delgado insurgents, while Bank of Mozambique data shows 2025 FDI inflows up 60.2% to $5.6bn, led by major gas projects. Food Systems: Mozambique is pushing higher investment in food fortification to cut micronutrient deficiencies, targeting staples like maize flour, sugar, oil and iodized salt. Regional Context: South Africa’s flooding disaster and renewed anti-immigrant tensions are also straining logistics and social stability across the corridor.

Rail Reform Momentum: Grindrod has signed a rail access agreement with Transnet’s rail infrastructure manager (TRIM), formally plugging into South Africa’s Open Access Rail plan and aiming to start Mozambique-bound coal runs via the North–East Corridor in 2027, with 288,000t in year one and scaling higher as more slots open. Mozambique LNG & Investment: Mozambique’s FDI jumped 60.2% to $5.6bn in 2025, led by major gas and extractives projects, reinforcing the Rovuma Basin’s role as the anchor for LNG ambitions. Cabo Delgado Security: The EU has extended EUMAM MOZ for six more months to keep building FADM rapid reaction capacity against Islamist terrorism. Food Fortification Push: Mozambique is being urged to boost investment in food fortification to tackle micronutrient gaps, with fortified production already at scale. Regional Shock Watch: South Africa declared a national disaster after extreme flooding killed at least 10, threatening roads, logistics and farm activity across the corridor. Governance & Social Support: Mozambique’s civil society is being positioned as a key partner in consolidating democratic rule of law.

Oil & Fertiliser Shock: Oil prices have eased to around $100/bbl after inventories blunted the impact of Hormuz disruption, but the Strait’s uncertain reopening and Iran-linked export cuts keep pressure on energy and food inputs. Mozambique LNG Finance: Eni is reportedly shopping its floating LNG (FLNG) cashflows for infrastructure-fund backing, with talks involving Apollo, KKR and Stonepeak—aimed at raising at least €1bn while keeping control. Mozambique Corruption Crackdown: A former Nampula health provincial director was arrested over alleged embezzlement tied to hospital works, highlighting continued pressure on public-spending fraud. Mozambique Investment Uptick: Bank of Mozambique data says FDI hit $5.6bn in 2025 (+60.2%), led by extractives and Rovuma-linked oil and gas activity. Agriculture Under Strain: Mozambique flagged rising pest pressure (58,101 hectares affected in 2025/26), warning climate and trade are spreading outbreaks faster. Regional Context: Zimbabwe is positioning as a Southern Africa fuel logistics hub as it upgrades the Beira–Msasa pipeline.

Mozambique Social Protection: Mozambique says about 2.4 million minors have been pulled into child labour, and officials warn the list of “dangerous jobs” approved in 2017 no longer fits today’s reality—especially as children are increasingly used on the internet. Agriculture & Risk: The same week, Maputo flags rising plant pests: 58,101 hectares hit by fall armyworm in 2025/26, up from last season, with officials linking spread to climate change and faster mobility and trade. Energy & Finance (regional spillover): While not Mozambique-specific, the LNG and power story is moving fast: Eni is reportedly seeking infrastructure-fund cash against its FLNG portfolio, and Eskom has signed a framework with Energy Vault for gravity storage across SADC—both signals of how capital is chasing long-duration energy in the region.

Biosecurity Push: South Africa’s Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen says an extra 2 million FMD vaccine doses have arrived from Türkiye, bringing imports to 8 million since late February; with 5 million more expected soon, total vaccine volumes could hit 13 million by now and 15 million by end-May—aimed at vaccinating 80% of the national herd by Dec 2026. LNG Finance Watch: Italian energy group Eni is reportedly asking Morgan Stanley to line up infrastructure-fund backers (Apollo, KKR, Stonepeak) for a deal tied to its floating LNG assets, potentially raising at least €1bn while freeing capital for more Mozambique FLNG. Mozambique Energy Skills: Mozambique laid the first stone for a $40m Technological Center to train up to 250 oil-and-gas technicians per year, with ExxonMobil leading future Area 4 LNG facilities. Crime & Drugs: Mozambique police say they arrested three men linked to international trafficking, including two Mexicans tied to the Sinaloa Cartel, as concerns grow over domestic addiction. Health System Stress: Coverage highlights how donor exits—like USAID—are exposing fragility in Africa’s health programmes.

Mozambique Energy Skills Push: Mozambique laid the first stone for a $40m Technological Center in Maputo to train up to 250 oil-and-gas technicians per year, aiming to cut reliance on foreign labour and deepen local content as ExxonMobil’s Area 4 LNG build moves forward. Digital Payments Momentum: Mastercard and Letshego launched the Letshego Debit Card in Mozambique, targeting financial inclusion as digital payments remain low (about 22% of adults). LNG Dealmaking Signals: Eni is exploring a potential LNG-assets financing deal with major infrastructure funds, a sign global capital is hunting for Mozambique-linked “floaters” and LNG cashflows. Climate Cost Reality: Mozambique says extreme weather has hit 1.7m people, destroyed 210,000 houses, and driven reconstruction needs of 48.6bn meticais—raising pressure on fiscal space. Regional Finance & Industry Context: Across Africa, leaders are pitching “sovereign equality” partnerships and new investment models, while unemployment and migration tensions keep spilling into economic debates.

Mozambique Public Transport Relief: President Daniel Chapo handed over 190 natural gas-powered buses for Greater Maputo, aiming to cut double fares and subsidise student trips as fuel-price pressure bites. Digital Payments Push: Mastercard and Letshego launched a Mozambique debit card to expand secure, globally accepted digital payments as financial inclusion efforts accelerate. Energy & Skills Momentum: ExxonMobil Foundation unveiled STEM Africa 2.0 with AI-focused learning for 14–17-year-olds, building on prior reach across Angola, Mozambique, Namibia and Nigeria. Mining Oversight Tightens: Mozambique’s parliament backed the creation of a Development Bank to fund medium/long-term projects, while a separate inquiry in Manica called for immediate closure of illegal mining sites over toxic water impacts. Regional Shockwaves: South Africa’s anti-immigrant protests remain a flashpoint, with calls for the government to investigate organisers—an issue Mozambique is watching closely as regional labour and migration tensions spill into politics.