Agribusiness & Jobs: President Daniel Chapo announced that 10% of Mozambique’s agricultural projects will be reserved for national liberation war veterans, framing it as a push toward “economic independence.” Trade & Finance: NBM plc used FACIM in Maputo to strengthen its regional footprint, positioning itself as a financial partner for cross-border business. Industrialisation Push: Manica and Moz Parks signed an agreement to set up industrial parks, starting with a site in Selva (Vanduzi), aimed at agro-processing, metalworking and food-related manufacturing. Risk Management in Farming: EMOSE compensated about 9,000 agricultural producers with 25 million meticais after extreme-weather losses in 2024/25, highlighting weather- and yield-index insurance. Energy Reality Check: Mozambique-linked power dynamics surfaced as Malawi’s grid outlook hinges on spare parts and expected electricity imports from Mozambique. Security & Tourism: Rebels in northern Mozambique took a South African mechanic hostage during an attack on a hunting lodge in Marangira, with reports of multiple civilian hostages and facilities burned. Cross-border Logistics: DHL Express and Absa expanded the GoTrade programme to help SMEs trade across Sub-Saharan Africa, combining logistics training with financial tools. Investment Appetite: Billionaire Mohammed Dewji’s MeTL Group said Mozambique is its biggest 2026 commitment, pledging over $250m tied to job creation.
AGP Executive Report
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Industrial Parks & Business Facilitation: Mozambique’s Manica province and Moz Parks signed an agreement to establish industrial parks, starting with a Selva site in Vanduzi district, targeting agro-processing, metalworking and food-related manufacturing. SME Support & Jobs: President Daniel Chapo inaugurated a business center in Mocuba (Zambezia) with a one-stop service desk to speed company registration and help link investment to production and employment under the “Jobs Now” push. Agriculture Insurance: EMOSE compensated about 9,000 agricultural producers with 25m meticais for 2024/25 weather losses, highlighting the push for weather- and yield-index micro-insurance despite early-stage adoption. Energy & Regional Industry: NERSA approved new maximum gas prices for South Africa for 2026/27 and 2027/28, citing anticipated supply shifts from Mozambique. Mining Value-Addition Trend: Kenya signalled a move to stop exporting raw minerals and process locally, aligning with broader African tightening on unprocessed mineral exports. Port & Logistics: Maputo Port invested $13.2m in new mobile cranes to boost cargo handling capacity. Hydropower Sustainability: Cahora Bassa South Bank in Mozambique achieved HSS Silver certification, adding momentum for greener power credentials. Digital Skills Link: CNPC’s “Moz-Dream” scholarship backed 36 Mozambican students for Chinese-language learning via UEM’s Confucius Institute. Regional Rail Integration: Eswatini’s ESR showcased a joint regional logistics push with Mozambique’s CFM and South Africa’s Transnet Freight Rail and Transnet Engineering at the EITF.
Port Modernisation: Maputo Port Development Company commissioned two new Liebherr mobile cranes in a $13.2m investment, aiming to push throughput to over 17m tonnes this year and cut vessel disruptions, with emphasis on training for operations, maintenance and safety. Energy Pricing: South Africa’s NERSA approved new maximum Sasol gas prices for 2026/27 and 2027/28, setting R97.31/GJ for end users and R92.44/GJ for traders/resellers as the market prepares for reduced Mozambique gas volumes. Hydropower Sustainability: Mozambique’s Cahora Bassa South Bank (2075MW) secured Hydropower Sustainability Standard (HSS) Silver certification, following years of upgrades on climate resilience, biodiversity management and worker health and safety. Regional Logistics: Eswatini Railways showcased a cross-border rail push at EITF 2026, teaming with Mozambique’s CFM and South Africa’s Transnet Freight Rail and Transnet Engineering to sell integrated Southern Africa logistics. Insurance for Industry: Mozambique President Daniel Chapo urged insurers to finance national growth—targeting roads, housing, industry, energy and agriculture—arguing insurers can mobilise savings into productive investment. FACIM Trade & Production: Brazil and Mozambique used FACIM to deepen ties via ApexBrasil, focusing on investment, technology transfer and local production partnerships rather than just exports. Food & Livestock Risk: The Philippines banned imports of FMD-susceptible animals and products from 23 countries including Mozambique, citing lab-confirmed outbreaks reported to WOAH. Agriculture Inputs: Africa’s soil degradation concerns surfaced at the Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, with calls for better fertiliser use and stronger private-sector soil-health investment.
Regional Rail & Trade: Eswatini Railways (ESR) brought Transnet Freight Rail, Transnet Engineering, Mozambique’s CFM and ESR to the 58th Eswatini International Trade Fair, pitching integrated cross-border logistics and stronger links to major ports. Port Modernisation: Maputo Port Development Company commissioned two new Liebherr mobile cranes for US$13.2m, aiming to lift throughput to over 17m tonnes in 2026 and cut vessel disruptions. SME Trade Support: DHL Express and Absa expanded the DHL GoTrade programme across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Mozambique and Tanzania next, offering training plus logistics and finance tools for cross-border exports. Insurance for Growth: Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo urged insurers to move beyond risk protection and help finance roads, housing, industry, energy and agriculture. Agriculture Data Gap: Mozambique’s statistics institute flagged gaps and inconsistent agricultural production figures (2021-2025), warning that policy planning needs a more reliable baseline. Energy Sustainability: Cahora Bassa South Bank in Mozambique secured Hydropower Sustainability Standard (HSS) Silver certification, citing years of climate resilience, biodiversity and emissions work. Security in Niassa: A suspected insurgent attack looted and burned a wildlife hunting camp near Marangira; two workers were killed and 13 remained missing.
Port & Logistics: Maputo Port Development Company commissioned two new Liebherr mobile cranes in a $13.2m upgrade, aiming to lift throughput to over 17m tonnes this year and cut vessel disruptions. Energy & Regional Trade: Mozambique and Zimbabwe broke ground on the Beira-Feruka pipeline Phase II expansion, targeting higher pumping capacity (from 3m to 5m cubic metres per year by end-2027) to build a regional fuel buffer for SADC. Hydropower Sustainability: Cahora Bassa South Bank in Mozambique secured Hydropower Sustainability Standard (HSS) Silver certification, following years of work on climate resilience, biodiversity and worker safety. Industry Finance: Mozambique President Daniel Chapo urged insurers to do more than manage risk—pushing them to finance roads, housing, industry, energy and agriculture as institutional investors. Digital Infrastructure: WIOCC secured $300m to expand Africa’s digital backbone, including data centres and fibre, with Mozambique flagged among markets for growth. Agriculture Data & Policy: Mozambique’s statistics body flagged gaps in agricultural production figures (2021–2025), warning that weak baselines can undermine value-chain and production planning. Trade & Production Links: Brazil and Mozambique used FACIM to deepen cooperation on local production, technology transfer and supplier development.
Port Modernisation: Maputo Port Development Company commissioned two new Liebherr mobile cranes in a $13.2m investment, aiming to lift throughput to over 17m tonnes this year and improve vessel service, productivity and safety. Regional Energy Integration: Mozambique and Zimbabwe broke ground on the Beira–Feruka pipeline Phase II upgrade, raising pumping capacity from 3m to 5m cubic metres by end-2027 to create a fuel buffer for SADC against supply shocks. Hydropower Sustainability: Cahora Bassa’s 2075MW South Bank project in Tete achieved Hydropower Sustainability Standard (HSS) Silver certification, following years of work on climate resilience, biodiversity and water-quality management. Trade & Finance for SMEs: DHL Express and Absa expanded the GoTrade programme across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Mozambique and Tanzania next for launch to help SMEs overcome cross-border trade barriers. Agriculture Data & Policy: Mozambique’s statistics institute flagged gaps and inconsistencies in agricultural production figures (2021–2025), warning that weak baselines can undermine value-chain and production policy planning. Insurance for Growth: President Daniel Chapo urged insurers to move beyond risk protection and help finance roads, housing, industry, energy and agriculture through institutional investment.
Port Modernisation: Maputo Port Development Company commissioned two new Liebherr mobile cranes in a $13.2m upgrade, aiming to push throughput beyond 17m tonnes this year and cut vessel disruptions. Regional Fuel Security: Mozambique and Zimbabwe broke ground on the Beira-Feruka pipeline Phase II expansion via CPMZ, lifting capacity from 3m to 5m cubic metres by end-2027 and adding a 67% boost to fuel volumes for landlocked SADC markets. LNG Momentum: Mozambique’s Coral North FLNG project (Area 4, Rovuma) is set for LNG production from 2028, with an EPC contract awarded for the new facility that will raise national LNG capacity to over 7m tonnes/year. Trade & Finance for SMEs: DHL Express and Absa signed an MoU to expand the GoTrade programme across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Mozambique and Tanzania next for rollout. Data & Planning Pressure: Mozambique’s agriculture production figures face gaps and inconsistencies, with the National Statistics Institute warning that policy decisions lack a fully dependable baseline. Food & Soil: At the Africa Food Systems Forum, agriculture stakeholders urged stronger soil health investment, better fertiliser use and sustainable soil management. Public Communication: Mozambique’s government says media modernisation is key to more inclusive public communication in the digital era.
Southern Africa Fuel Security: Mozambique and Zimbabwe kicked off Phase II of the Beira–Feruka pipeline expansion (CPMZ), lifting capacity from 3 million to 5 million cubic metres per year by end-2027 and adding about two billion litres of fuel annually to buffer SADC against supply shocks. Regional Logistics & Trade: CPMZ also framed the upgrade as a stronger Port of Beira-to-hinterland corridor, with potential knock-on benefits for markets including Zambia, Malawi, Botswana and DRC. Mozambique LNG Build-Out: Mozambique’s Coral North FLNG project (Area 4, Rovuma basin) is set for LNG production start in 2028, with JGC-led EPC consortium awarded the key engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning contract. Digital Infrastructure Push: WIOCC secured $300m from Africa Finance Corporation and Vision Invest to expand open-access fibre, data centres and subsea cable assets across 30+ African countries. Industrial & Skills Linkages: Mozambique’s UEM and Macau’s UTM launched a talent development programme in Maputo, deepening engineering and broader faculty training ties. Energy Sector Resilience: Mozambique’s EDM reported $76m in losses from extreme weather (2022–2026) and is building climate risk and disaster management capacity. Mining & Legal Watch: India’s Delhi High Court issued notice in a Mozambique Benga coal mine arbitration challenge involving BGR and TCL.
Regional Energy Infrastructure: Mozambique and Zimbabwe broke ground on the CPMZ Beira-Harare fuel corridor expansion, lifting capacity 67% from 3 million to 5 million cubic metres per year by end-2027 and adding about two billion litres of fuel annually to support landlocked markets. Power Resilience & Climate Risk: EDM said extreme weather caused estimated losses of $76m between 2022 and 2026, including $9.29m from southern floods this year, pushing the utility to strengthen climate risk and disaster management. Central Bank Shake-up: President Daniel Chapo reversed the appointment of Bank of Mozambique governor Waldemar de Sousa, naming Felisberto Dinis Navalha as governor and Benedita Maria Guimino as deputy, amid public controversy linked to the “hidden debts” scandal. Trade & Industry at FACIM: In Maputo, a China (Hunan)-Mozambique matchmaking event signed 11 cooperation deals, while Hunan firm Zoomlion sought to expand agricultural machinery access through local partnerships. Agriculture Policy: Mozambique approved plans to recover cotton output from 20,000 tonnes to 60,000 tonnes annually, aiming to restore the production chain and boost export earnings. Mining Legal Watch: India’s Delhi High Court issued notice in challenges to an ICC partial award in the Benga coal mine arbitration involving Mozambique-linked parties.
Mozambique–Zimbabwe Energy Corridor: Presidents Daniel Chapo and Emmerson Mnangagwa broke ground on Phase II of the Companhia do Pipeline Moçambique–Zimbabwe (CPMZ) expansion, lifting Beira–Feruka pumping capacity from 3 million to 5 million cubic metres per year and adding about two billion more litres of fuel annually to support Mozambique, Zimbabwe and wider SADC markets. Banking Leadership Shake-up: Chapo reversed the appointment of Waldemar de Sousa as Bank of Mozambique governor, naming economist Felisberto Dinis Navalha as governor and Benedita Maria Guimino as deputy, amid criticism linked to the “hidden debts” scandal. Hydropower Sustainability Milestone: Cahora Bassa South Bank in Mozambique achieved Silver certification under the Hydropower Sustainability Standard (HSS), following years of sustainability upgrades. Agriculture Value Chain Push: Mozambique approved plans to recover cotton output from 20,000 to 60,000 tonnes a year, aiming to restore the production chain and boost exports and jobs. Digital Infrastructure Investment: WIOCC secured a combined $300m investment from Africa Finance Corporation and Vision Invest to expand open-access digital infrastructure across Africa. Security & Travel Warning: The US issued a “Do Not Travel” advisory for northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado over terrorism threats, adding to similar warnings by other countries. Trade & Mechanisation at FACIM: China’s Hunan province held a Maputo matchmaking conference and Zoomlion sought to expand agricultural machinery sales in Mozambique via local partnerships.
Mozambique–Brazil trade push: Brazil is the Country of Honour at FACIM in Maputo, with a record-sized delegation meeting Mozambican firms to deepen ties around investment, technology transfer, and local production. Energy infrastructure in Mozambique: Zimbabwe and Mozambique leaders are set to launch the second phase of the Companhia do Pipeline Moçambique–Zimbabwe expansion, lifting Beira–Feruka capacity from 3m to 5m cubic metres via new pumping stations in Sofala and Manica. Power sector deal with Mozambique assets: UAE-based ePointZero (2PointZero Group) agreed to buy 90% of Azura Power, which operates 175MW in Mozambique alongside Nigeria and Senegal, giving the buyer a scaled baseload platform subject to approvals. Agriculture know-how for Mozambique: FAO-backed SoilFER work is boosting Mozambican women scientists and lab capacity to improve soil testing and farm productivity, supporting better yields for crops like cassava. China–Mozambique business matchmaking: A Hunan–Mozambique economic and trade conference in Maputo produced signed cooperation deals spanning energy, infrastructure, and industrial parks, while Hunan firms also seek to expand agricultural mechanisation for Mozambican farmers.
Fuel Infrastructure: Presidents Mnangagwa and Chapo are set to launch Phase 2 of the Companhia do Pipeline Moçambique-Zimbabwe (CPMZ) expansion in Nhamatanda, Sofala, boosting Beira-Feruka pumping capacity from 3m to 5m cubic metres a year and adding new pumping stations to strengthen regional diesel, petrol and jet fuel supply. Agriculture & Science: Mozambique’s SoilFER programme is backing women soil scientists at IIAM labs, processing about 100 soil samples daily to guide safer, more productive farming through better nutrient and contamination analysis. Energy & LNG Supply Chain: Corinth Pipeworks won a $200m–$250m line pipe supply package for Rovuma LNG Phase 1 in Mozambique, covering ~250 km of offshore pipeline network pipe for deepwater gas. Power Investment: ePointZero agreed to buy 90% of Azura Power, controlling 752MW of operating generation across Nigeria, Senegal and Mozambique under long-term PPAs, pending approvals. Trade & Logistics: Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe agreed a Customs-to-Customs data exchange roadmap to cut border delays and lower corridor logistics costs. Health & Labour Risk: WHO flags rising tobacco farming in Africa, naming Mozambique among the main producers and warning of serious health risks for workers.
Mozambique Business & Trade: President Daniel Chapo told FACIM that Mozambique must boost domestic production and exports to ease the foreign-currency squeeze, arguing more output means more US dollars and a better balance of payments. Mozambique Agriculture & Women: In Maputo, an African Mothers’ New Farm event under the Office of the First Lady and Hunan Province’s Women’s Federation focused on skills training, agricultural production, entrepreneurship and jobs for women. Mozambique Energy & Infrastructure: Mozambique’s role in regional power is advancing as the 400kV Mozambique–Malawi (MOMA) interconnector moves toward commercial trading, with Mozambican-side works completed and metering commissioning imports recorded. Mozambique LNG Supply Chain: Corinth Pipeworks won a major line-pipe supply package for the Rovuma LNG Phase 1 offshore pipeline network, valued at $200m–$250m. Regional Logistics: Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe agreed a customs-to-customs data exchange roadmap to cut border delays and logistics costs. Southern Africa Industry Context: South Africa’s illegal mining is blamed for road collapses and sinkholes in Johannesburg, while Nersa approved Sasol Gas maximum gas prices for 2027–2028.
Mozambique–Malawi Power: The 400KV MOMA interconnector is now fully built and energised, with tariff talks still under way to enable commercial power trading. Trade & Industry: Zimbabwe is using FACIM in Maputo to push exports and deepen production links with Mozambique, betting proximity can cut costs and strengthen regional value chains. Infrastructure & Connectivity: Japan’s JICA has pledged $10.4m for Natete bridge reconstruction in Nampula, aiming to improve mobility and climate-resilient access along the Nacala corridor. Security & Readiness: President Daniel Chapo urged Mozambican commandos to stay ready for more complex threats, stressing training, intelligence, logistics and secure communications. Ports & Logistics: ICTSI has signed to buy 100% of TLG’s shares, with TLG’s Mozambique corridor operations in bulk and agricultural cargo handling. Regional Fisheries Governance: Namibia still hasn’t paid into a SADC anti-illegal fishing centre headquartered in Maputo, despite in-kind support. Food Systems: A new AGRA-linked message for southern Africa: boosting output isn’t enough—farmers need value retention, incomes and resilience.
Power Deal: UAE’s ePointZero (2PointZero Group) is set to buy a 90% stake in Azura Power Holdings, taking control of 752MW across Nigeria, Senegal and Mozambique, with Amaya Capital keeping 10%—a sign of Gulf-backed push into Africa’s power demand. Mozambique Infrastructure: Japan’s JICA will disburse $10.4m to reconstruct the Natete bridge in Nampula, with road access and riverbank protection to boost the Nacala Corridor’s trade connectivity. Transport & Trade: DRC and Angola signed a new railway agreement to improve links to the Lobito Atlantic port, aiming to cut export bottlenecks for minerals. Energy Costs: Diesel prices remain a pressure point across the region; Mozambique is among the top five most expensive in August 2026, feeding into freight, construction and food costs. Security & Readiness: President Daniel Chapo urged Mozambique’s commandos to stay ready for more sophisticated threats, stressing training, intelligence, logistics and secure communications. Ports & Logistics: ICTSI agreed to acquire 100% of TLG’s shares, including cargo-handling operations across Mozambique and other corridors. Anti-Fraud: Malawi’s Nocma says it will not pay a second $403,616 after hackers diverted a Mozambican payment tied to Nacala port services. Fisheries Governance: Namibia has not yet paid its SADC illegal-fishing centre contribution, even as the Maputo-based facility ramps up monitoring.
Mozambique Energy & Power: Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM) reported about $113m net profit for 2025, but most of it came from dividends from its stakes (notably CEZA), while core power operations delivered a thin margin—raising questions about how quickly the utility can fund the push to electrify every Mozambican by 2030. Mining & Environment: A new report flags heavy mineral sands extraction across Mozambique as a growing threat to mangroves and coastal protection, citing rapid clearing and hydrology changes linked to mining concessions and weak environmental impact assessment practices. Ports & Trade: ICTSI signed an agreement to buy 100% of TLG Acquisition Holdings, an integrated port and cargo operator with Mozambique operations, aiming to deepen Africa’s bulk and agricultural logistics footprint pending approvals. Infrastructure & Industry Support: The U.S. Trade and Development Agency is lining up power-grid modernization partnerships in Southern Africa, including Mozambique, with a delegation visit to the U.S. to showcase AI-enabled outage prediction and electricity flow optimization. Regional Climate Risk: Southern Africa’s seasonal outlook warns Mozambique is among areas likely to see below-normal rainfall during key agricultural months, adding pressure to water and farm planning.
Mozambique Energy & Power: Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM) reported about $113m net profit for 2025, but most of it came as dividends from its stakes, raising questions about whether the utility’s core operations can fund the push to electrify all Mozambicans by 2030. Mozambique Agriculture & Climate Resilience: Mozambique’s Ministry of Agriculture is backing greenhouses and boreholes to cut reliance on rain-fed farming, alongside irrigation rehabilitation and scaling borehole drilling, plus locally produced certified seeds. Mozambique Logistics & Trade: UPF Group opened an office in Kigali and is strengthening regional sales support, with Mozambique already hosting three UPF offices. Mozambique Mining & Environment: A Stimson Center read highlights Mozambique’s heavy mineral sands extraction risks, including mangrove clearing and projects reportedly operating without proper environmental impact assessments. Mozambique Governance & Corruption: Malawi’s Anti-Corruption Bureau summoned NOCMA CEO Emmanuel Matapa over a $403,605 payment tied to “fraudulent correspondence,” as police moved against senior NOCMA officials. Regional Food Security: Zimbabwe is bracing for a hotter, drier 2026/27 summer, with below-normal rainfall likely during key planting months—an issue that also affects Mozambique’s wider southern Africa supply outlook.
Electricity Access Push: Mozambique’s EDM says it will add at least 420,000 new electricity connections by end-2026, taking access to about 2 million people, as it targets universal power by 2030 through grid expansion plus mini-grids and boreholes. Grid Modernisation Partnerships: The U.S. Trade and Development Agency is lining up a Southern Africa power-sector delegation from Angola, Botswana, Mozambique and Zambia to the U.S., focused on grid management and outage prediction tech and upcoming procurement opportunities. Fuel & Logistics Capacity: Mozambique’s pipeline build-out continues to strengthen regional fuel security, with reported expansions to boost transport capacity and supply routes across Southern Africa. Port & Cargo Investment: ICTSI has agreed to buy full ownership of TLG, an integrated port and cargo operator with Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa assets, pending regulatory approvals. Mining & Environment Pressure: A new report highlights heavy mineral sands extraction in Mozambique, linking rapid site clearing to mangrove loss and hydrology disruption, with calls for stronger mining regulation and impact assessments. Governance & Corruption Watch: Mozambique’s NOCMA faces an Anti-Corruption Bureau probe after a reported $403,605 payment tied to “fraudulent correspondence,” with senior staff reportedly arrested. Climate Risk for Farming: Southern Africa’s seasonal outlook flags higher chances of below-normal rainfall across parts of the region including Mozambique, raising pressure on irrigation, water conservation and climate-smart agriculture.
Port & Logistics Expansion: ICTSI has signed to buy 100% of TLG Acquisition Holdings, a port and cargo operator with Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa assets, pending regulatory approvals—another push for Africa-linked trade flows. Power & Grid Modernisation: The US USTDA will host a Southern Africa power delegation (including Mozambique) in late August/early September to showcase grid management tech and unlock procurement opportunities. Electricity Access Push: Mozambique’s EDM says it plans at least 420,000 new connections by end-2026, targeting about two million people, as it drives the Energy for All Programme. Mining Oversight & Worker Claims: South Africa’s Tshiamiso Trust reports a 64% jump in silicosis/TB claim lodgements to 13,337, with Mozambique included in service delivery centres. Industrial Revamp: South Africa’s IDC is in talks with former Mozal shareholders to revive the smelter before year-end, with implications for regional jobs and industrial output. Energy Trade Context: LNG market disruptions are reshaping African gas supply and pricing, with Mozambique flagged among countries affected by delayed gas projects. Mining Environment Watch: A report highlights heavy mineral sands extraction in Mozambique and alleged mangrove and hydrology damage tied to rapid concession clearing.
EDM Electrification Push: Mozambique’s state utility EDM says it will add at least 420,000 new electricity connections by end-2026, lifting access to about 2 million people under its “Energy for All” programme. Port & Trade Expansion: ICTSI signed to buy TLG Acquisition Holdings, a port and cargo operator active across Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa, pending approvals. Mining Oversight & Community Impact: Mozambique’s heavy mineral sands extraction is under renewed scrutiny after satellite monitoring flagged mangrove destruction in the Zambezi Delta linked to a Chinese-linked operator. Energy & Industrial Finance: South Africa’s IDC is in talks with former Mozal shareholders to revive the smelter, with potential implications for jobs and Mozambique’s aluminium output. Anti-Corruption in Energy: Malawi’s ACB summoned NOCMA’s CEO over a reported $403,605 payment tied to “fraudulent correspondence,” underlining governance risks around regional energy firms. Climate-Smart Agriculture: Mozambique’s agriculture ministry highlights greenhouses, boreholes and seed production as ways to stabilize vegetable output as rainfall becomes less predictable.
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